The winner is the cell phone, and the losers are all heading down the path of extinction, or to bit roles in the information/communication/collaboration ecosystem.
In the very near-future, all entertainment/communication/collaboration devices will be more like your cell phone.
This means that companies that are slapping on computer-like interfaces to TVs because they think that people want to interact with their TV the way they now surf the web are heading down an evolutionary dead-end. Companies that are betting their future on adding TV-like features to laptops are heading down a different dead-end.
Here is an easy-litmus test. If the device/service that you are looking at depends on mouse/keyboard as the primary method of interacting with the system, you are staring at an endangered species.
Yes, the iPad is “just” a big iPhone. That is the point.
