Meditations on the Death of the Mouse

“I’ll tell you a secret. It began with the tablet. I had this idea about having a glass display, a multitouch display you could type on with your fingers. I asked our people about it. And six months later, they came back with this amazing display. And I gave it to one of our really brilliant UI guys. He got [rubber band] scrolling working and some other things, and I thought, ‘my God, we can build a phone with this!’ So we put the tablet aside, and we went to work on the iPhone.” (Steve Jobs at the D8 Conference, June 2nd)

When I read, and re-read this quote from Steve Jobs, I was most struck by the viral process that set loose the Touch  meme. In a flash of inspiration,  a foreign meme, Touch,  was injected  into the iPhone product development process.  And this meme, with prodigious speed and fidelity, replicated itself throughout the smartphone and computing eco-system, successfully competing with (and I predict ultimately crowding out) the mouse/keyboard meme.  However, one good meme is not enough.  As we explored in Galapagos, to have a lasting impact, we need a set of related, rapidly replicating memes to achieve evolutionary stability (i.e., have an enduring impact).

I think Apple with the iPhone/iPad has come close to achieving this “evolutionary stable set” with a few notable exceptions, most critically around a gesture-and voice-driven converged device that will compete with and ultimately replace TV.  And for those smug Apple acolytes who think the battle is over and Apple’s dominance is assured, read the following Steve Jobs’ quote below very carefully:

It’s not a problem with the technology, it’s a problem with the go-to-market strategy….I’m sure smarter people than us will figure this out, but that’s why we say Apple TV is a hobby. (Steve Jobs at the D8 Conference, June 2nd)

If smarter people do figure it out, I believe that Apple’s entire paradigm is at risk and the iPhone and the iPad will go the way of the hula-hoop and the get-rich chain-letter. A sobering thought for those who are hoping to ride their Apple stock to 10x its current value and retire worry-free.

See below for a list of what I believe are an evolutionary stable set of memes. And note that the iPad  scores poorly when rated against these criteria. (See The Next Big Thing for a discussion on why the iPad is only a transitional, not transformative, device.)

Evolutionary stable set of memes

1. Voice.  Interfaces that use voice as an overlay technology to supplement touch and gesture.
2. Touch. Multi-touch display that you can type on with your fingers
3. Gesture. Gesture- driven display when touching is impractical or undesirable (e.g., Wii)
4. Collaboration-enabled. Conferencing (including video), screen sharing, online-participation
5. Location-aware.
6. Mobile-enabled.
7. Multi-purpose. Device becomes the preferred tool for at least three major functions (e.g., voice recorder, camera, gaming, book reader)
8. Converged. Brings together telephone, TV, computing to a single hardware platform.
9. Fast-evolving  devices. Devices change shape, size, portability to fill new niches in the eco-sytem. (Example: iPod, iPod shuffle, iPod nano)
10. Fast-evolving symbiotic devices.  Add-on products (portable speakers, alarm clock docking stations, etc.) proliferate rapidly.
11. Apps.  Nearly limitless supply of no-cost or low-cost self-contained applets that cater to specific needs, e.g., Point me to Mecca. What species of tree is in front of 220 Mott Street?)
12. Single source distribution. Corporate-mediated single source distribution platform for  apps (e.g., App Store) and content.

Posted on June 6, 2010 at 1:00 pm in convergence, Death of the Mouse, iPhone, mobile computing, Sea Change   |  RSS feed |   Respond   |   Trackback URL